Chance of one specific phrase coming up
- Input
- 1 quebra, banco de 25 frases
- Expected output
- 1/25 = 4%
Each of the 25 phrases has the same 4% chance of appearing in a single crack, because the pick is uniform.
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fortune cookie history
The fortune cookie is now associated with Chinese restaurants in the United States, but its documented origin is Japanese: similarly shaped cookies, tsujiura senbei, were sold at Kyoto temples in the 19th century with a folded fortune message inside, decades before the shape showed up in the United States.
Each of the 25 phrases has the same 4% chance of appearing in a single crack, because the pick is uniform.
Since the draw is with replacement (the shown phrase stays in the pool), the second crack has a 4% chance of repeating the exact same phrase as the first, the same odds as any other specific phrase.
The tool stores the last 5 shown phrases only for display; that list is never consulted by the draw, which keeps picking from the full 25-phrase pool on every crack.
A fortune cookie is a crisp folded cookie containing a small paper slip with a short message. It is widely associated with Chinese cuisine in the US, though its origin is likely Japanese or Californian, from the early 20th century.
No. The documented origin is Japanese, tied to temple cookies in Kyoto in the 19th century and to Japanese immigrants in the United States in the early 20th century; the association with Chinese American restaurants came later and is virtually unknown in mainland China.
Yes, with a 4% chance (1 in 25), because the draw is done with replacement: the shown phrase stays available for the next draw, with no exclusion.
Authorship is disputed between two Japanese immigrants in the United States: Makoto Hagiwara, of the Japanese Tea Garden in San Francisco, and David Jung, of the Hong Kong Noodle Company in Los Angeles, both tied to the item between the early 20th century and 1918.
25 messages in Portuguese and 25 in English, each pool drawn independently and uniformly; it is not a short list of 3 or 4 repeated phrases.