Gaming

Inside the poker ranking: the exact probability of every hand

Most players memorize the poker hand ranking without ever asking where it comes from: why does a full house beat a flush, and a flush beat a straight? The answer has nothing to do with arbitrary convention, it is pure counting. There are exactly 2,598,960 possible 5-card hands from a 52-card deck, and every category in the ranking, from a pair to a royal flush, corresponds to an exact slice of that total. The smaller the slice, the higher the hand ranks: the whole ten-category hierarchy is nothing more than rarity put in order. This guide derives that count from scratch, applying the multiplication principle step by step, walks through the field-by-field math for a flush and for two pair, and gathers the full table with the exact probability of every hand, each one checked by an independent calculation until they add up, one by one, to the grand total. Build your own hands and watch the category resolve live in the [poker hand ranking tool](tool:poker-hand-rankings) as you read.

J-Kit13 min readIntermediate
  • Poker
  • Combinatorics
  • Probability
  • Card deck

Key takeaways

  • The poker ranking is rarity put in order: the fewer combinations a category has among the 2,598,960 possible 5-card hands, the higher it ranks.
  • The total, C(52,5) = 2,598,960, and each of the 10 counts are derived by the multiplication principle (pick the rank, then pick the suits) and add up exactly to the grand total.
  • Two fully worked examples: a flush (5,108 combinations, ≈0.1965%, 1 in 509) and two pair (123,552 combinations, ≈4.7539%, 1 in 21).
  • The match between rarity and ranking is nearly exclusive to the standard 13-rank deck; wild cards and 7-card games (Hold’em) change the practical frequency without changing the order inherited from the 5-card hand.

The deck, the hand and the total combinations

A standard poker deck has 52 cards: 13 ranks (2 through 10, J, Q, K, A) in each of 4 suits. A 5-card poker hand, in the definition used by the World Series of Poker and by practically every variant without wild cards, is a selection of 5 distinct cards from the deck in which order does not matter: being dealt A♠ K♠ Q♠ J♠ 10♠ in any sequence is the same hand. That property, order irrelevant and no repetition, is what makes the count a combination, not a permutation, and it is why every formula in this guide uses the notation C(n, k), "n choose k".

The combination formula starts from every way to deal out 5 cards in order (52 × 51 × 50 × 49 × 48, or 52!/47!) and then divides by the 5! = 120 different orders in which the same 5 cards could have come out, since they all count as the same hand. The result is the denominator that shows up in every probability in this guide, the same C(n, k) that shows up, for example, when counting how many lottery number combinations cover a given set of numbers.

C(52,5) = 52! / (5! x 47!) = 2598960
52!
every possible order of the 52 cards
5!
divides out the 120 orders the same 5 cards could come out in, they are the same hand
47!
divides out the orders of the 47 cards left out
2598960
the total number of distinct 5-card hands
The total number of possible 5-card hands from a 52-card deck.
52cards: 13 ranks × 4 suits
2,598,960possible 5-card hands
10categories in the standard ranking

Why the ranking follows rarity exactly

The table below gathers the exact count of every category (derived field by field in the next section) and the resulting probability. The numbers were calculated independently and match, decimal place by decimal place, the combinatorial probability notes of McGill University’s MATH 323 course, a good sign there is no typo or transposed digit.

The 10 poker hand categories, standard 52-card deck, 5-card hand.
HandCombinationsProbabilityOdds
Royal flush40.000154%1 in 649,740
Straight flush360.001385%1 in 72,193.3
Four of a kind6240.024010%1 in 4,165
Full house3,7440.144058%1 in 694.2
Flush5,1080.196540%1 in 508.8
Straight10,2000.392465%1 in 254.8
Three of a kind54,9122.112845%1 in 47.3
Two pair123,5524.753902%1 in 21
One pair1,098,24042.256903%1 in 2.4
High card1,302,54050.117739%1 in 2.0
Total2,598,960100%-

Notice the pattern: reading the table from bottom to top, every category has strictly fewer combinations than the one before it, and that is exactly the order the poker ranking uses. A full house (3,744) beats a flush (5,108) because it has fewer combinations, not because it "feels" stronger; a flush beats a straight (10,200) for the same reason. That is not a coincidence of just any deck: a 2025 mathematics preprint (Williamson, arXiv 2511.06145) studied decks with other numbers of ranks and showed the standard deck, with 13 ranks, is the smallest deck where the raw frequency of every category agrees with the traditional ranking order for all hand types, except within high-card subcases. In other words, the historical choice of 13 ranks per suit is not just cultural, it lands exactly on the point where the math and the game’s convention line up without contradiction.

Deriving each count, the multiplication principle

Every count in this guide uses the same idea: break the hand choice into independent steps (pick ranks, then pick suits) and multiply the number of options at each step. That is the multiplication principle, the same logic as "if there are 3 ice cream flavors and 2 cone types, there are 3 × 2 = 6 combinations". Four of a kind is the simplest case to start with: pick the rank that will repeat 4 times (13 options), the 4 cards of that rank are mandatory (there is only one way to take all 4, C(4,4) = 1), and the fifth card can be any of the remaining 48.

N(quadra) = 13 x C(48,1) = 13 x 48 = 624
13
the rank chosen to repeat 4 times
C(48,1)
the fifth card, any of the 48 cards left over (52 minus the 4 already used)
624
total four-of-a-kind hands
Four-of-a-kind count: one rank fixes 4 cards, the fifth is free among the remaining 48.

A full house has one extra step because it has two parts with variable suits: the triple and the pair. First pick the triple’s rank (13 options) and which 3 of its 4 suits go into the hand, C(4,3) = 4 ways. Then pick the pair’s rank among the 12 remaining ranks, and which 2 of its 4 suits go in, C(4,2) = 6 ways.

N(full house) = 13 x C(4,3) x 12 x C(4,2) = 13 x 4 x 12 x 6 = 3744
13
rank chosen for the triple
C(4,3)
which 3 of the 4 suits of that rank form the triple (4 ways)
12
rank chosen for the pair, any of the 12 remaining ranks
C(4,2)
which 2 of the 4 suits of that rank form the pair (6 ways)
Full house count: rank and suits of the triple, times rank and suits of the pair.

The rarest hand of all, the straight flush, uses a different logic: instead of repeating a rank, it is a run of 5 consecutive ranks, all in the same suit. There are 10 possible starting points for a run of 5 ranks in a 13-rank deck: A-2-3-4-5 (the "ace-low" straight), 2-3-4-5-6, 3-4-5-6-7, and so on up to 10-J-Q-K-A, which is exactly the royal flush. So of the 10 starting points, 1 is the royal flush and the other 9 are "plain" straight flushes; multiply each group by the 4 suits.

N(straight flush) = (10 - 1) x 4 = 36 N(royal flush) = 1 x 4 = 4
10
starting points of a 5-rank run, from A-2-3-4-5 to 10-J-Q-K-A
-1
removes the 10-J-Q-K-A starting point, counted separately as the royal flush
4
possible suits for the run
Straight flush excludes the royal’s starting point; royal is the one remaining starting point.

The remaining categories follow the same recipe, just changing how many cards vary in suit and how many ranks are left free. The table gathers each one’s formula; all were checked by adding up the 10 results and matching the total of 2,598,960.

The counting formula for every category, standard deck.
HandCounting formulaResult
High cardC(13,5)×4⁵ − flushes − straights + straight flushes1,302,540
One pair13 × C(4,2) × C(12,3) × 4³1,098,240
Two pairC(13,2) × C(4,2)² × 44123,552
Three of a kind13 × C(4,3) × C(12,2) × 4²54,912
Straight10 × 4⁵ − 40 (straight flushes)10,200
FlushC(13,5) × 4 − 40 (straight flushes)5,108
Full house13 × C(4,3) × 12 × C(4,2)3,744
Four of a kind13 × C(48,1)624
Straight flush9 × 436
Royal flush1 × 44

Two worked examples: flush and two pair

The two examples below show the full derivation, from scratch to the final probability, for the two most useful hands to understand well: the flush, because it illustrates the trap of double-counting the straight flush, and two pair, because it has one more step than any other category.

  1. Pick the suit4 possible suits for the whole flush: C(4,1) = 4.
  2. Pick 5 ranks within that suitThere are 13 cards in that suit; choosing 5 of them is C(13,5) = 1,287.
  3. Multiply4 × 1,287 = 5,148. That number unintentionally includes every straight flush, which is also 5 cards of the same suit.
  4. Subtract the straight flushesThere are 40 straight flushes in total (36 plain + 4 royal). 5,148 − 40 = 5,108 "plain" flushes.
  5. Compute the probability5,108 / 2,598,960 ≈ 0.19654%, or roughly 1 in 509 hands.
  1. Pick the two ranks that will pair upFrom 13 ranks, pick 2 to become pairs: C(13,2) = 78.
  2. Pick the suits of each pairFor each of the 2 ranks, pick 2 of the 4 suits: C(4,2) = 6, so 6 × 6 = 36 suit combinations for both pairs together.
  3. Multiply the two-pair core78 × 36 = 2,808 ways to build the two pairs.
  4. Pick the fifth cardIt needs a rank different from the two already paired, 11 ranks are left, each with 4 suits: 11 × 4 = 44 options.
  5. Multiply and compute the probability2,808 × 44 = 123,552. Divided by the total: 123,552 / 2,598,960 ≈ 4.7539%, or roughly 1 in 21 hands.
Build a 5-to-7-card hand and watch the evaluator recognize the category and show its exact probability.Open the tool full page

Wild cards, variants and common ranking mistakes

Everything in this guide holds for the game without wild cards, with a 52-card deck. As soon as a wild card is added (or "wild" cards like deuces enter the rules), the clean correspondence between rarity and ranking stops holding: a wild card can complete any hand, which disproportionately inflates the count of the higher categories (five of a kind, five cards of the same rank, only exists with a wild card) and upends the original rarity order. That is why wild-card tables usually carry an explicit separate rule slotting five of a kind at the top of the ranking, instead of letting the raw count "decide" on its own. Do not confuse this fixed-combination math with blackjack, where there is no "hand ranking" at all, the winning hand is decided by the sum of card values against the house, a sequential-decision problem, not a combination count.

Why suit never breaks a tie in poker

Notice that every formula in this guide multiplies by a suit combination, C(4,k), and those combinations do not favor any particular suit: choosing 2 of the 4 heart suits gives exactly the same 6 options as choosing 2 of the 4 spade suits. Because the deck has exactly 4 symmetric suits, no hand category is more likely in one suit than another, which is why standard poker rules (unlike games such as bridge) never use suit to break a tie between two hands of the same category and the same top rank.

Is three of a kind really weaker than a straight?

Yes, and it is worth looking at the numbers again to believe it: three of a kind has 54,912 combinations (2.11%), almost 5.4 times more than the 10,200 of a straight (0.39%). Many people find this counterintuitive because "3 matching cards" looks more impressive visually than "5 cards in a row", but the count leaves no doubt, a straight is the rarer of the two hands, and the ranking respects exactly that. The rarity here is fixed, hand after hand, unlike the design of other luck-based games, such as the pity system in gacha games, where the chance of a rare item rises with every failed attempt by the game’s own rule.

Frequently asked questions

Why does a full house beat a flush?
Because it has fewer possible combinations: there are 3,744 full houses against 5,108 flushes in a 52-card deck. The full house is rarer, so it ranks higher, the poker ranking follows the rarity of each category exactly.
What is the rarest hand in poker?
The royal flush (10, J, Q, K, A of the same suit), with only 4 possible combinations out of 2,598,960 five-card hands, a probability of about 0.000154%, or 1 in 649,740.
What is the probability of being dealt a pair?
There are 1,098,240 hands with exactly one pair, about 42.26% of all 5-card hands, or roughly 1 in every 2.4 hands. It is the second most common category, behind only high card (50.12%).
Does the ranking order change in Texas Hold’em?
No, the order inherited from the 5-card hand still holds. What changes is the practical frequency of each category at showdown, since in Hold’em each player picks the best hand out of 7 cards (2 hole cards + 5 community cards), not a fixed 5. A 2025 preprint (arXiv 2511.06145) calls this effect "showdown frequency" and shows the standard 13-rank deck is the smallest one where that frequency still agrees with the traditional ranking.
How can I check these numbers myself?
With any calculator that has a combination function (COMBIN in a spreadsheet, math.comb in Python, or C(n,k) on a scientific calculator): recompute every formula in the derivation table, add up the 10 categories, and check the result matches 2,598,960. That exact sum is the simplest test that no count is wrong.
Does suit break a tie between two equal poker hands?
No, under standard rules. Because the deck has 4 symmetric suits (every counting formula treats all 4 equally), no suit makes a hand rarer than another, so two hands of the same category and the same top rank tie and split the pot.

The poker ranking is not convention, it is rarity in order: of the 2,598,960 possible 5-card hands from a 52-card deck, every category has an exact count derivable by the multiplication principle, from a pair (1,098,240 combinations) to a royal flush (4 combinations), and the smaller the count, the higher the hand ranks. Wild cards and 7-card games change the practical frequency, but they inherit this same order, which remains, point for point, the math of a 52-card deck.

Sources & references

  1. McGill University, MATH 323 Probability, Combinatorial Probability: Poker Hands
  2. World Series of Poker, Poker Hand Rankings (official ranking order)
  3. C. Williamson, Extremal poker hand rankings: why the standard 52 card deck and a 3044 card deck are special (arXiv 2511.06145, 2025 preprint)