Naive vs. real chance across 60 convenes
- Input
- 60 convenes, taxa base 0,8%
- Expected output
- Ingênua: 48,0% | Real: 38,2%
Wuthering Waves' higher base rate makes the gap between the naive and real math even more visible than in the other three games.
Wuthering Waves pity
Wuthering Waves uses "convenes" to pull Resonators and weapons, and runs a pity system that is visibly more compact than HoYoverse's games: hard pity at pull 80, not 90, with a higher base rate and a steeper soft pity ramp. It's a system that guarantees the item sooner, at the cost of each ramp step being larger.
Wuthering Waves' higher base rate makes the gap between the naive and real math even more visible than in the other three games.
The 7.2-percentage-point-per-pull ramp, starting at pull 66, already exceeds 100% probability before reaching pull 80.
The 80-pull hard pity, 10 pulls fewer than 90, shrinks both worst-case cycles by the same proportion: 20 fewer convenes overall.
Pity is the count of convenes since your last 5★. Soft pity (from 66 in Wuthering Waves) is when the 5★ chance starts rising a lot each convene. Hard pity (80) is the cap where a 5★ is guaranteed. The calculator accounts for all three.
It's a design choice specific to the game: the 80-convene hard pity, combined with a higher base rate (0.8%) and a steeper ramp (7.2 percentage points per pull), guarantees the 5-star sooner than the 90-pull standard used by other gachas in the genre.
Yes, by pull 79 the ramp's accumulated increment already exceeds 100%, so in practice the probability saturates one pull before the nominal 80-pull hard pity.
It costs less in absolute pull count: since hard pity is 80 instead of 90, the worst case of two full cycles adds up to 160 convenes, against 180 in Genshin, Star Rail and ZZZ.
The base rate alone doesn't tell the whole story: what determines the real number of convenes to the 5-star is the combination of base rate, soft pity start and slope, and hard pity, and by that combination Wuthering Waves does reduce both the average (53.4) and the worst case (160) compared to the other three games.
Wuthering Waves: 0.8% base rate, soft pity at convene 66, guaranteed hard pity at 80.
The soft pity curve follows community-estimated values from game data; the base rate and pity limits are the official ones. Use it for planning, not as a guarantee.
Calculation happens locally in the browser; nothing is sent to servers.