Genshin Impact soft pity
Genshin Impact's 5-star rate is not fixed: it sits at 0.6% per wish until the soft pity ramp takes over, and hard pity guarantees a 5-star on wish 90. Understanding the gap between those two numbers, and what the 50/50 does to the outcome, completely changes how you read "how many wishes do I need".
The naive math multiplies rate by count; the real one uses 1 minus the product of all 60 consecutive failures, which is always lower.
Between those two wishes, the 15-pull gap equals 15 increments of 6 percentage points each: a curve, not a smooth line.
It's the sum of two full hard-pity cycles (90 + 90), because losing the coin flip resets the counter and delays the guarantee.
Pity is the count of wishes since your last 5★. Soft pity (from 74 in Genshin) is when the 5★ chance starts rising a lot each wish. Hard pity (90) is the cap where a 5★ is guaranteed. The calculator accounts for all three.
At wish 74. Up through wish 73 the rate stays fixed at 0.6% per pull; from wish 74 onward it climbs 6 percentage points per wish until reaching a guaranteed 100% at wish 90.
It's a mechanic introduced in version 5.0 that can prevent a second consecutive 50/50 loss, confirmed by HoYoverse itself. The company has not published the exact trigger rate, and community estimates disagree with each other, so that number stays out of any guaranteed worst-case calculation.
Under the base rule, no: losing once guarantees the next 5-star obtained is the featured character. Capturing Radiance exists precisely to make that sequence even rarer, but without a published rate.
Because 90 is the guaranteed worst case, not the average. Since the soft pity ramp concentrates most of the probability between wishes 74 and 89, the average weighted by those odds comes out to 62.3 wishes.
Genshin Impact: 0.6% base rate, soft pity at wish 74, guaranteed hard pity at 90.
The soft pity curve follows community-estimated values from game data; the base rate and pity limits are the official ones. Use it for planning, not as a guarantee.
Since version 5.0, the Capturing Radiance mechanic can grant the featured character even on a lost 50/50, and losing the 50/50 repeatedly increases the chance of that happening. HoYoverse confirms the mechanic exists and does not affect pity or guarantees, but has not published the exact formula for the chance, and community estimates disagree with each other. Because of that, the calculation above does not include this bonus: in practice, the real chance tends to be equal to or a little higher than what is shown.
Calculation happens locally in the browser; nothing is sent to servers.