Naive vs. real chance across 60 warps
- Input
- 60 warps, taxa base 0,6%
- Expected output
- Ingênua: 36,0% | Real: 30,3%
The naive math ignores that each warp only runs on whoever has not gotten the 5-star yet; the real one uses the product of failures.
Honkai: Star Rail pity
Honkai: Star Rail runs a warp system with the same numeric architecture as Genshin Impact's wish: a 0.6% base rate, soft pity starting at warp 74, and a guarantee at warp 90. The difference is not in the pity numbers themselves, but in how the game splits this system across two distinct banners: characters and Light Cones.
The naive math ignores that each warp only runs on whoever has not gotten the 5-star yet; the real one uses the product of failures.
The soft pity ramp concentrates most of the probability between warps 74 and 89, pulling the average well below the guaranteed number.
Losing the coin flip resets the pity count, so the worst case adds up two full 90-warp cycles instead of just one.
Pity is the count of warps since your last 5★. Soft pity (from 74 in Honkai: Star Rail) is when the 5★ chance starts rising a lot each warp. Hard pity (90) is the cap where a 5★ is guaranteed. The calculator accounts for all three.
No. Each banner runs its own pity count, its own soft pity position and its own 50/50, without affecting the other banner's counter.
At warp 74, the same point as Genshin Impact: the rate stays at 0.6% until then and climbs 6 percentage points per warp until guaranteeing 100% at warp 90.
The guarantee applies to the next 5-star obtained within the same banner type (character), it does not vanish when the banner switches its featured character, but it stays confined to the character track.
Because multiplying rate by pull count adds up probabilities as if they combined linearly; the correct calculation uses 1 minus the product of consecutive failures, which always comes out below the simple sum.
Honkai: Star Rail: 0.6% base rate, soft pity at warp 74, guaranteed hard pity at 90.
The soft pity curve follows community-estimated values from game data; the base rate and pity limits are the official ones. Use it for planning, not as a guarantee.
Calculation happens locally in the browser; nothing is sent to servers.