With a simple 6-number bet, the odds of hitting the jackpot are 1 in 50,063,860. Marking more numbers raises the probability in proportion to the games covered.
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The chance of each prize tier, with the exact probability
The Lottery Odds Calculator shows the real chance of each prize tier in the Caixa lotteries, based on the number of numbers you bet. It uses the hypergeometric model, the same one that describes draws without replacement, to compute the exact probability of matching 6, 5, 4 numbers and so on. Marking more numbers raises the chances (and the cost), and the tool makes that visible in a clear table. It is the ideal way to compare games and see, in numbers, just how rare the top prize is. Everything is calculated in your browser.
The chance of a simple bet's top prize is 1 divided by the number of possible board combinations, that is, 1 / C(n, k), where n is the total pool of numbers and k is how many are drawn. On Mega-Sena there are 60 numbers and 6 drawn, so C(60, 6) = 50,063,860, and the jackpot chance is 1 in 50,063,860.
For the lower tiers (matching 5, 4, 3 numbers, etc.), the hypergeometric model applies: the probability of matching exactly k numbers combines how many of the drawn and how many of the not-drawn numbers fall in your bet, divided by every board combination. Marking more numbers than a simple bet covers several combinations at once, raising the chance in proportion to the games covered.
Mega-Sena, a simple 6-number bet: the jackpot (6 hits) comes up 1 in 50,063,860. Five hits improve to about 1 in 154,518, and four hits to about 1 in 2,332. That is why many people win the four-hit tier without ever getting close to the jackpot.
Quina, a simple 5-number bet from a pool of 80: the top prize is C(80, 5) = 24,040,016, so 1 in 24,040,016. Lotofácil, despite drawing 15 numbers, has the smallest pool (25) and therefore the best top prize among the big games: C(25, 15) = 3,268,760, a chance of 1 in 3,268,760.
The only real way to raise the probability is to cover more combinations: mark more numbers or play more bets. No choice of specific numbers, dates, sequences, "hot" or "cold", is more likely than another, because every combination has exactly the same chance of being drawn.
Picking unpopular numbers does not change your chance of winning, but it can reduce the chance of sharing the prize if you do win. Use the tool to see, in numbers, how rare the top prize is, and play responsibly, always within your budget.
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></iframe>With a simple 6-number bet, the odds of hitting the jackpot are 1 in 50,063,860. Marking more numbers raises the probability in proportion to the games covered.
This lottery has a fixed bet of 5 numbers + 1 Powerball.
| Hits | Prize | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 + Powerball | Jackpot | 1 in 292,201,338 | 3.42e-7% |
| 5 | $1,000,000 | 1 in 11,688,054 | 8.56e-6% |
| 4 + Powerball | $50,000 | 1 in 913,129 | 1.10e-4% |
| 4 | $100.00 | 1 in 36,525 | 2.74e-3% |
| 3 + Powerball | $100.00 | 1 in 14,494 | 6.90e-3% |
| 3 | $7.00 | 1 in 580 | 0.17% |
| 2 + Powerball | $7.00 | 1 in 701 | 0.14% |
| 1 + Powerball | $4.00 | 1 in 92 | 1.09% |
| 0 + Powerball | $4.00 | 1 in 38 | 2.61% |
This lottery draws two independent pools: the main numbers and the Powerball. Each tier’s chance is the product of both probabilities, which is why matching the numbers without the Powerball lands in a different tier.